Although we’ve been focusing a lot of attention on Nicholson et al.’s new classification for anoles, Daniel Scantlebury recently called attention to the fact that this monograph also contains “a bold hypothesis of the biogeographic history of” anoles. I’m going to focus here on only one aspect of Nicholson et al.’s biogeographic analyses – namely, their use of two remarkable amber fossils to calibrate a Bayesian relaxed clock analysis supporting the hypothesis that anole diversification dates back to the Cretaceous.
Nicholson et al.’s hypothesis that anoles first appeared more than 90 million years ago and that most major clades of anoles originated prior to 70 mybp is likely to be one of the most controversial aspects their hypothesized biogeographic scenario. These extremely old ages are significant because they make anole diversification compatible with a scenario that has long attracted the attention of vicariance biogeographers (Rosen 1975, Savage 1982, Crother and Guyer 1996). Under this scenario, anoles occupied an ancient volcanic arc that originated in the Pacific ~120 mybp and formed a landbridge between North and South America in the Late Cretaceous (75-70 mybp) before moving on to form the present day West Indian islands.
I have characterized the ages for anole diversification in Nicholson et al.’s biogeographic reconstruction as “controversial” and “extremely old” because they are older than the age estimates obtained by most other studies. Hedges et al. (1992) were among the first to use molecular methods to estimate ages for terrestrial vertebrate fauna of the West Indies, and reported ages for anoles and other taxa that were far too young to be compatible with Cretaceous vicariant events and the hypothesized Greater Antillean Landbridge between North and South America. Hedges et al. (1992) suggested instead that anoles arrived in the West Indies via over-water dispersal. Although Crother and Guyer (1996) criticized Hedges et al.’s use of immunological data and their resulting conclusions about over-water dispersal, more recent work has tended to support Hedges et al.’s conclusions by recovering ages for anoles and other terrestrial West Indian vertebrates that are too young to be compatible with the vicariant scenario hypothesized by Savage (1982), Crother and Guyer (1996) and Nicholson et al. (2012).
Daza et al.’s (2012) cladistic analysis of fossil data, for example, includes an update of the time calibrated tree generated by Conrad (2008) from available fossil material; this tree suggests that the Polychrotidae (the possibly non-monophyletic clade that includes anoles and other putative relatives like Polychrus) split from the Hoplocercidae sometime in the Eocene (~50 mybp). Townsend et al.’s (2011) analysis of a multi-locus molecular phylogenetic dataset for iguanian lizards that used a BEAST analysis with 18 fossil calibrations suggests a split between Anolis carolinensis and the Corytophanidae at 50-70 mybp. Most recently, Mulcahy et al.’s (In press) analysis of a multi-locus phylogenetic dataset for squamates in BEAST that relies on 14 fossil calibrations suggests that Anolis carolinensis split from Enyalioides laticeps 25-75 mybp (penalized likelihood analyses conducted by Mucahy et al. suggest a considerably older split between these two species that dates to around 80 mybp).

Recently published trees with estimates for the age of Anolis from Daza et al. 2012, Townsend et al. 2011, and Mulcahy et al. in press.
Why is there a discrepancy between the ages for anoles reported by Nicholson et al. and other studies?