Anolis shrevei. Photograph by Miguel Landestoy.
Post-doc Vincent Farallo presented work, co-authored by Martha Muñoz, in the behavioral physiology session on the importance of incorporating physiology and behavior when assessing how species, especially montane endemics, will be impacted by climate change. Vincent and Martha compared correlative models and mechanistic niche models to better understand how climate change may impact three anoles from the island of Hispaniola, Anolis shrevei, A. armouri, and A. cybotes. When predicting future ranges of these species using correlative modeling, Farallo and Muñoz saw that the ranges of the mountain-top endemics A. shrevei and A. armouri shrink, whereas the range of the widespread species A. cybotes remains the same under future climate change predictions. Comparing these findings to mechanistic niche modeling, which uses organismal physiology and behavior to help predict future activity times within current ranges, they found that all three species will increase activity times within the mountain-top endemic ranges.
To reiterate their findings, they showed that when incorporating behavior and physiology, montane endemic species will increase potential activity time under climate change. However, their widespread competitor will also see increased activity, indicating the montane endemics are still likely at risk, but not directly from warming temperatures. Understanding the mechanism of species decline will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change.
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